Hon Adviser Mr KWOK Kwok-chuen's letter to Old Boys – Too close for comfort, too far to co-operate

2020.05.17

Following is a letter to Old Boys by the Honorary Adviser of Queen's College Old Boys' Association (QCOBA) and former Government Economist, Mr KWOK Kwok-chuen, today (May 17). He is now the Program Director of the AsiaGlobal Fellows Program of the Asia Global Institute of the University of Hong Kong.

This is the fifth episode of Letters Asunder, an initiative to mark QCOBA's centenary in 2020 under the theme "Serving QC family, our centenary duty", sharing with the Queen's community words of wisdom and reflections.

Too close for comfort, too far to co-operate

Dear QC Brothers,

Many people in Hong Kong are watching very closely the COVID-19 case numbers regularly, hoping for the best and waiting eagerly to see when life would get back to normal. Many individuals and families are having a hard time, particularly for our frontline workers in the medical and other fields, and people who have lost their jobs or businesses. But overall, it is gratifying to see that the situation in Hong Kong is much better than many other places around the world.

While we should all be proud of Hong Kong's success in containing the pandemic, this is no time to gloat on others' sufferings. The second wave of COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong in March and April reminded us that, in the face of a global pandemic, Hong Kong could not solve its problems and get life back to normal on its own. Once borders are open and travel resumes, problems in other countries will become our problems. It is therefore common sense that the world is together in this pandemic, and should support, work with and co-ordinate with each other. Even if it were only for humanitarian reasons, the more developed and better prepared countries should help the less fortunate ones.

But alas, what is happening in the real world is far from what things should be. We have seen politicians and government officials adopting unfriendly or even hostile attitudes towards others, or blaming others for their own policy mistakes in dealing with the pandemic. We have seen countries introducing protectionist policies in the trade of face masks, disinfection products and personal protective equipment. A new term "vaccine nationalism" has been coined to describe how some politicians tried to dominate or even monopolise the development and production of vaccines in their own country. At a time when the work of the World Health Organization (WHO) is most needed in helping the less developed world to deal with the pandemic, the WHO has to deal with a lot of criticisms and political pressure.

Apart from tackling the health problem, the world also needs to deal with a second serious challenge of reviving the economy. The world has developed rapidly over the past few decades as countries became much more open, globalised and interlinked. However, COVID-19 has suddenly reminded everybody how much we all depend on each other around the world and that such a high level of integration could become "too close for comfort". Even before the current pandemic, globalisation trends are already coming under a lot of challenges. It is likely that, after the pandemic, there will be a rethink of the proper balance between specialisation and self-reliance when economies get back to normal. But the world has to be mindful about the risks of deglobalisation driven by nationalistic and protectionist forces.

On the political side, the China-United States (US) strategic competition is likely to become a much more serious problem. Slogans such as "America First" and "Make America Great Again" on the one hand and "China Dream" and "Made In China 2025" on the other have generated a lot of debate and tension between China and the US even before the pandemic, as exemplified by the trade and technology "wars" between them. The pandemic has led further to a trading of accusations and counter-accusations between them.

The terms "Washington Consensus" and "Beijing Consensus" were used to describe the possible emergence of a "one world, two systems" situation, with the rise of China leading gradually to challenges to the rules of the dominant global order. What has happened in recent years is that Washington DC is perhaps no longer standing behind the "Washington Consensus" of having a set of multilateral institutions and standards as the US increasingly puts American interests first. Multilateral co-operation is now under serious threat and, ironically, the COVID-19 pandemic has probably worsened the situation.

History has taught us that nationalism, protectionism and the failure of global leadership will make existing global problems even worse. This is also the reason why co-operation amongst countries under a set of multilateral rules is so important. The world as a whole has lived through a prolonged period of peace and rapid development after the World War II under a multilateral framework, with billions of people lifted out of poverty. Hong Kong has also evolved very successfully as a global financial and business centre under such a multilateral framework, particularly after China started opening up and reform.

When the two biggest economies in the world do not trust each other and the rest of the world could not depend on multilateral rules and institutions to enforce world order, our future will be full of uncertainties. Resolving global issues such as pandemics, climate change or sustainable development will be made much more difficult.

Closer to home, Hong Kong as a Special Administrative Region will be caught in the middle of the strategic competition between the US and China, and our economy will be threatened by the rise of protectionist sentiments. In the shorter term, the run-up to the US presidential election in November 2020 will be a particularly sensitive period. The further development of Hong Kong as a global financial and business centre is going to encounter formidable challenges. It will be a serious test of Hong Kong's resilience and its ability to navigate the very difficult times ahead.

Good luck to Hong Kong!

KWOK Kwok-chuen
Class of 1971

Queen's College Old Boys' Association
May 17, 2020